How do you believe Shalane Flanagan's half-marathon debut in Houston will go?

[Andrew A.]

Entry list: http://www.usatf.org/events/2010/USAHalfMarathonChampionships/entry/status.asp

[Ryan]

Honestly, before seeing the start list, I was going to say not winning doesn't mean flame out but I don't see who in that list I would bet on over her. So, my play money (I'm not a betting man with real money) is on her. I'm going to say sub-71 would be a very solid run for her but one that wouldn't surprise me. I think an AR, at this point in time, would be a surprise (obviously, a very pleasant surprise).

[Andrew A.]

Well, she does have three ARs on the track (3000, 5000, & 10,000), though of course those were all achieved under Cook. Her PR in the 10,000 yields a 1:07:low from your calculator and we saw another highly-regarded debutant smoke the men's AR not that long ago on the same course.  The CR could be easily within her reach, and if the weather cooperates and she is comfortable with pushing the pace by herself like Hall did then she might be able to dip under the women's AR.  Of course, it also depends on which Shalane shows up -- she seemingly took a step back performance-wise with her new coach last year and has not shown sure signs that she is back to her old self yet.  This is no slight at all to the other entrants, there are many fine athletes in the field.  However, the likes of Kara Goucher, Amy Yoder-Begley, and Katie McGregor are not going to be there.  The current CR-holder, Colleen De Reuck, along with Magdalena Boulet, Tera Moody, and Melissa White should be in the hunt for top five finishes.  From a local perspective, Renee Metivier Baillie, former NCAA CC runner-up and multiple all-American training under Jay Johnson, is making what I believe is her debut at the distance.  Brent Vaughn is also making his debut in the half-marathon and I am intrigued to see how he does.  Looks like a really solid men's field, including Rohatinsky, Carney, Arciniaga, Nelson, and Ryan Shay's younger brother Stephan, and should make for some really good races.

I have read elsewhere that there will be a live webcast:
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=7212907
"KTRK's steadycam vehicle will follow the half virtually to the finish (where the FL cameras will take over) before heading back out to pick up the full marathon at about mile 17."
Race starts at 7 a.m. CST (8 EST, 6 MST, 5 PST)

[Ryan]

Indeed, to start, no slight to the rest of the field. There are a lot of good runners in the field. I just don't see anyone who, at this point in their career, seems ready to challenge Flanagan at this point in her career if she is running well.

I realize that her times on the track suggest a 1:07 but track times tend to be faster than road times even on the most favorable non-aided road courses. Will she be able to run, likely with nobody pushing her, a 1:07 on the road? I wouldn't be surprised if she goes sub-1:10 but I would still be very pleasantly surprised if she goes 1:07 this time.

[Andrew A.]

Granted, and there will not be rabbits like she had on the track.  As an aside, Hall's 5000 and 10,000 (and even 15K, 20K, 30K, and marathon) PRs actually predict a slower half per your calculator than what he has run.

[Ryan]

Just goes to show how strong Hall's half was. I suppose it also goes to show that you can never count on equivalents to predict someone's potential.

[grasshopper]

Thanks for the webcast link. 

To my eye, much like Hall and Ritz, Flanagan could have a rather ideal build and stride for the half-marathon.

[Andrew A.]

So the two AR-holders, Kastor and Hall, are running the RnR half-marathon this weekend in Phoenix, instead.  Too bad they are skipping the USA Championships for a race like that.

[Ryan]

Too bad. I suppose I could take a look at the prize structures to get an idea of the answer to this but I wonder if their choices might have to do with financial compensation. Of course, prize structures only show one part of the financial compensation picture for an event like RnR.

[Andrew A.]

Right, I would suspect that RnR compensated them with an appearance fee to the same level that their sponsors would have had they run in and won the USA Championships.

[grasshopper]

More promo here http://campaign.constantcontact.com/render?v=001DcfdIOMFLbkO3BzNhU66-FTWZmxWOAR3RFDYl6O945EV3YfnfM0E1V2OBqosRB1lTRZD2jH2cjhaiJ3b3X7s7KBLNTUNh_YXAom9JBA2w8Tw5CgVXI5oBw%3D%3D

[Andrew A.]

The more I think about it, the more it seems like RnR's luring Kastor and Hall away from a national championship race hurts the sport more than it helps it, especially given the fact that RnR does basically nothing to foster grassroots development.