Pollution affects women's marathon times

[Ryan]

I think the only way to really compare this is with the elite runners - males and females that have been running and training to win for many years.

This is precisely what I'm talking about doing.

But there are too many variables - even with the same coach - the coach will likely not give them the same training effort, use the same techniques with them etc . .

That's true with all athletes, regardless of whether or not they are of the same gender. It's all about building the program around the individual and not trying to make the individual fit a program that may not be ideal for that individual.
 

There is some results based evidence of something going on - Has the time gap been the same for several decades or is the time gap closing?

It has been closing to some extent but I've seen the world record progression curves for both men and women for many different events. Those curves, regardless of distance or gender, follow very similar trends and show that the men do have a distinct advantage.

The progression curves I've seen have been in books but, when I get a chance, I'll see if I can find any of those online.

[Ryan]

I wasn't able to find any nice chart but here's a breakdown of the numbers (it's a bit of a quick analysis so please excuse the fact that it looks a bit rushed and not deeply thought out - that's exactly what it is at this point):

Men
1/1/1940: 2:26:42
1/1/1950: 2:25:39 (1:03 improvement - likely affected by WW2)
1/1/1960: 2:15:17 (10:22 improvement - catching up)
1/1/1970: 2:08:34 (6:43 improvement - Derek Clayton breaking the curve)
1/1/1980: 2:08:34 (0:00 improvement - The curve getting back online)
1/1/1990: 2:06:50 (1:44 improvement)
1/1/2000: 2:05:42 (1:08 improvement)
1/1/2010: 2:04:26 (1:16 improvement)

Women

1/1/1970: 3:07:26
1/1/1980: 2:27:32 (39:54 improvement - obviously, just getting started)
1/1/1990: 2:21:06 (6:26 improvement)
1/1/2000: 2:20:43 (0:23 improvement - falling behind the curve?)
1/1/2010: 2:15:25 (5:18 improvement - Paula Radcliffe getting things back ahead of the curve)

You can see that 2:26 to 2:15 for the men took 20 years and that 20 years was interrupted by WW2. For the women, it took 30 years and nobody other than Radcliffe has come close to 2:15 so it is still looking like her time, even 7 years after she ran it, is still ahead of the standard progression curve.

While the women, with a 12+ minute improvement in the past 30 years, are outpacing the men, with just a 4+ minute improvement, all indications are that their curve is leveling off much like the men did about 40 years ago. You could consider Radcliffe's 2:15 to be roughly the equivalent of Clayton's 2:08 - an ahead of the curve performance that will likely be the end of the big improvements and usher in the era of incremental improvements.

[Ed]

This is exactly what I was looking for - thanks Ryan.  It seems that the time gap while at different points in their curves is only slightly closing.  This evidence does lead to the conclusion that men might have more factors in their favor than do women.
 
An interesting thought is where do transgender individuals fall in this. Here we have the mental aspects of one gender and the physical aspects of the other.  Does this mitigate some of the disadvantages or advantages? 

[grasshopper]

This is exactly what I was looking for - thanks Ryan.  It seems that the time gap while at different points in their curves is only slightly closing.  This evidence does lead to the conclusion that men might have more factors in their favor than do women.

What is the gap doing in terms of percentage or proportion?
 

An interesting thought is where do transgender individuals fall in this. Here we have the mental aspects of one gender and the physical aspects of the other.  Does this mitigate some of the disadvantages or advantages?

 

[Andrew A.]

This is exactly what I was looking for - thanks Ryan.  It seems that the time gap while at different points in their curves is only slightly closing.  This evidence does lead to the conclusion that men might have more factors in their favor than do women.

What is the gap doing in terms of percentage or proportion?
 

An interesting thought is where do transgender individuals fall in this. Here we have the mental aspects of one gender and the physical aspects of the other.  Does this mitigate some of the disadvantages or advantages?

 

+1 WTF?

I agree that it might be more useful to look at % difference (or % improvement difference) than simply in terms of raw time difference. 

[Ryan]

Grasshopper and Andrew, I agree that the % difference or % improvement difference would be a more adequate way to look at that. I think the raw numbers give you an indication of what is happening but may still suggest more of a closing of the gap than actually exists.

On a tangential note, I have no doubt that the men have progressed farther along the improvement curve than the women have but the women also will catch up more quickly because they are not waiting as long for the training and scientific advances, as well as advances such as the professionalization of the sport and many others, that the men had to wait for and work through. Many of the things that held the men back 50 years ago or even 20-30 years ago are in place for the women and will not hinder their progression curve as much as they did with the men.

[Andrew A.]

I have no doubt that the men have progressed farther along the improvement curve than the women have but the women also will catch up more quickly because they are not waiting as long for the training and scientific advances, as well as advances such as the professionalization of the sport and many others, that the men had to wait for and work through.

Color me skeptical, as women - especially among deep talent pools like exists in Kenya's Rift Valley, but even here in the USA still - receive far less support to go into running as a sport and stick with it into the professional ranks compared to men.  It is a smaller opportunity gap in more developed nations, and prospects are improving all over, yet it remains a fairly universal reality.

[Ryan]

I actually added, then removed, a comment from my post about how "certain cultural aspects" (basically those you describe were what I had in mind), among other factors, will ensure that women won't be able to just step into the game at the same point on the curve that men are already at. However, they don't have to go back and relearn the past 50 years of advances in training philosophies, nutrition, sports medicine, sports psychology, etc. While their pay scale isn't equal to that of the men, they don't have to fight for any pay like the men 30-40 years ago did. Factors like these are what I think we will find have and will speed the improvement curve for the women.

[Andrew A.]

Fair points, and likely impossible to determine what balance will be struck between the benefits and the hindrances except perhaps in hindsight.