Author Topic: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon  (Read 4429 times)

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Offline Ryan

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HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« on: April 11, 2012, 10:04:17 AM »
I'm a little late getting started on this, sorry for the late start, but hopefully we will get a good number of people taking part.

I'll cut right to the chase. Nobody complained about the scoring for the Olympic Trials so we will use the same scoring method:

Picking the correct position for a top 3 finisher from the below list of favorites: 10 points
Picking a top 3 finisher, regardless of position, from the below list of favorites: 4 points
Picking the correct position for a top 3 finisher not on the list of favorites: 15 points
Picking a top 3 finisher, regardless of position, not on the list of favorites: 6 points

Ties will be broken by taking the closer predicted winning time.

The individual with the highest score in each race will get their choice of one piece of HillRunner.com Gear. Note 1: To spread the wealth, if the same individual wins both events, the second place finisher whose overall score is closer to the winner's score wins a piece of gear. Note 2: I will participate in the contest but remove myself from contention for prizes on the off chance I win. Likewise, I will encourage Andrew and Ed to participate but remove themselves from contention for prizes if they win.

For the lists of favorites, I'm simply picking the top 5 seed times. There should hopefully be some opportunities to pick others.

Men's favorites (worth 10 or 4 points, anyone not listed here is worth 15 or 6 points):
Geoffrey Mutai
Gebre Gebremariam
Tadese Tola
Levy Matebo
Wilson Chebet

Women's favorites (worth 10 or 4 points, anyone not listed here is worth 15 or 6 points):
Galina Bogomolova
Mamitu Daska
Caroline Kilel
Sharon Cherop
Ashu Kasim

2012 Boston Marathon elite field

Remember, pick the top 3 finishers and the winner's finishing time. The men's and women's races will be scored separately so there are two opportunities to win.

Place your picks here, PM me or email me. Any picks placed before the start time Monday morning will be eligible. If you want to change your picks, you can do so any time before the start of the race.

Offline Ryan

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2012, 12:42:21 PM »
Nobody is placing their bets? Or are we all just waiting until closer to race day to see the weather forecast before predicting winning times?

My bets will come later. Just haven't had time to look over the elite entries and make my choices.

Offline Andrew A.

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2012, 02:38:46 PM »
Just busy with other things:
Men
Geoffrey Mutai 2:07:59
Gebre Gebremariam
Wesley Korir

Women
Firehiwot Dado 2:24:59
Caroline Kilel
Sharon Cherop
Why dink around? Go for it, be the best. It is worth whatever risk there is even if you fall short. You will be better.
‎"There is no such thing as an overachiever. We are all underachievers to varying degrees." - John Wooden.

Offline Ryan

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2012, 07:14:59 PM »
My picks:

Men:
Geoffrey Mutai: 2:07:21
Wilson Chebet
Gebre Gebremariam

Andrew, you picked the men's podium I was looking at. I'll go out not terribly far on a limb and take some other picks.

Women:
Sharon Cherop: 2:25:13
Firehiwot Dado
Rita Jeptoo

I like Dado's chances but the Kenyans know they are running for everything. I can't believe I'm picking against Kilel but I'll mix up the picks some so we're not picking all the same people.

Offline Ed

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2012, 06:11:20 AM »
Here are my picks -
 
Men
Geoffrey Mutai 2:09:36

Wilson Chebet 2:09:53
Levy TebeboWomen
Caroline Kilel  2:27:23

Sharon Cherop  2:28:03
Galena Bogomolova
 
Come on everyone - let's get some quick votes in here!
Next Goal Race - Al's Run

Offline Andrew A.

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2012, 10:30:52 AM »
I score my men's picks the winner with a 6, Ed's as runner-up with a 4.  Ryan's women's picks win with a nice 10, Ed's are runner-up again with a 4 by winning the tiebreak over my score of 4.
Why dink around? Go for it, be the best. It is worth whatever risk there is even if you fall short. You will be better.
‎"There is no such thing as an overachiever. We are all underachievers to varying degrees." - John Wooden.

Offline Ryan

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2012, 10:51:53 AM »
Andrew, thanks for not mentioning my score on the men's side. A big, fat goose egg. If it weren't for leaving out my embarrassment, I'd say you could serve as official scorer. :)

Official scores:

Men:
Andrew: 6
Ed: 4
Ryan: 0

Women:
Ryan: 10
Ed: 4 (-4:27)
Andrew: 4 (-6:51)

Offline Andrew A.

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2012, 10:53:27 AM »
Was it because you were wary of elevating Korir to 2nd or 1st?  ;)  To throw you a bone, we tied for combined score and you win on combined tiebreaker.  8)
It was a wildcard equalizer sort of day in terms of weather (though advancing further into climate change, unusual weather should become more common).  Little shock that those who ran well in cool, tailwind conditions would not be the same as those who can run well in very warm and humid conditions.  It just makes blind luck that much more of a factor in the crapshoot of picking a WMM podium.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2012, 11:16:20 AM by Andrew A. »
Why dink around? Go for it, be the best. It is worth whatever risk there is even if you fall short. You will be better.
‎"There is no such thing as an overachiever. We are all underachievers to varying degrees." - John Wooden.

Offline Ryan

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2012, 11:38:42 AM »
I was wary of placing Korir on a WMM podium, especially when accomplished WMM veterans were competing for Olympic spots.

Boston is always a fascinating race because it is so unpredictable. Good or bad, the weather often is a game changer. That's what makes it such a fun race for the spectators, though. Very exciting because of its extreme unpredictability.

Offline Ed

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2012, 06:10:59 AM »
So both my picks to win go with a DNF.  That stinks.  I wish I could have watched the event.
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Offline r-at-work

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2012, 06:50:05 AM »
... Boston is always a fascinating race because it is so unpredictable. Good or bad, the weather often is a game changer. That's what makes it such a fun race for the spectators, though. Very exciting because of its extreme unpredictability.

Spectators line the roads for THEIR marathon, all 26.2 miles. People in Boston are incredibly proud that THEIR race is the oldest in the country, older than NYC when they mention it to tourists. The city promotes the race, the Red Sox play during the race which is along the course (about mile 25)... schools have off for Patriots' Day. People who live along the route have parties, grill out, play music, hand out ice... and the warm weather made it better for the spectators if brutal for the runners.
 
The only other race I've seen that is so community supported is Grandmas in Duluth... people line the roads there as well.
"We run, not because we think it is doing us good, but because we enjoy it and cannot help ourselves..." Sir Roger Bannister

Offline Ryan

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2012, 09:02:24 AM »
Rita, honestly I'm not even talking about the Boston local spectators and how they embrace the race when I bring that up. For them, like you stated, it's their race. It's a great local tradition and a source of civic pride. It's as unique in running as the Kentucky Derby in horse racing or the Green Bay Packers in football.

What I meant was that, for spectators like myself watching online from a distance, the unpredictability of Boston due to the widely variable weather conditions, the lack of pacers, the nature of the course and everything else that goes into it makes it one of the most exciting races to watch. In other races, you kind of know how the script goes even before the gun goes off. At Boston, you have no idea. There was a lot of speculation before the race that the Kenyans would still go out at a blistering pace and try to run everyone into the ground. Not only did they not do that, when presented with the opportunity to go at a slightly less pedestrian pace early on they actively turned it down. The race still became the battle of attrition it was expected to be but it was in slow motion. It was amazing to watch 2:04-2:06 marathoners fall apart at 2:12 pace, a relative jog for those guys. It was a reminder of how much the weather really does affect all of us, even the best prepared. In a way, it was a reminder after all the excitement over last year's times that they were greatly affected by the weather. At the same time of that reminder, it made for an incredible show. Giants of the recent marathon scene succumbing to the conditions, a head to head battle to the very end of two women who were mostly overlooked before the race, a late race surge in the men's race by another largely overlooked runner to overtake yet another mostly overlooked runner and win the men's race.

It proved races don't have to be fast to be exciting. It also proved that, when you have no idea beforehand what will happen, the excitement is that much greater.

Offline r-at-work

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2012, 06:29:45 AM »
It proved races don't have to be fast to be exciting. It also proved that, when you have no idea beforehand what will happen, the excitement is that much greater.

Maybe that's why the Olympics are so exciting (for me at least)... you get the three best (in theory) from each country and with the weather being HOT there are no guarantees
"We run, not because we think it is doing us good, but because we enjoy it and cannot help ourselves..." Sir Roger Bannister

Offline Ryan

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Re: HillRunner.com Pick and Win Contest: 2012 Boston Marathon
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2012, 03:18:31 PM »
Rita, that is part of the draw of the Olympics for me. The "any given day" philosophy still lives, to some extent, in the Olympics. Of course, the favorites usually win but there's always the chance of an upset on the podium, if not getting the gold. Of course, that's true at any race but it seems to especially be true at the Olympics, as well as Worlds (Jenny Simpson in the 1500, for example).