Ed, we need to work on your confidence. You need to be going into these races believing in yourself, not second guessing yourself. You're fit, you're ready. Race day is supposed to be the fun part, just going out and executing what you know you are prepared for.
That said, good effort. Saturday morning was a tough day for running. I faded on my Saturday run and, with a wind out of the southwest, I'm guessing the lake even as close as you were to it didn't offer much help.