The calculator here suggests a slightly faster marathon time. However, you're right to be cautious. I usually warn people to use the calculator, then add at least 10 minutes. By that standard, you're right on the edge.
There are a lot of questions that could be asked right now. How important is this BQ to you? How would you feel about a 3:15? How would you feel if you went out at 3:10 pace and weren't able to finish? Dozens of training questions. In the end, I usually advise people to be very conservative with their first marathon goals and yours, as you recognize, is pretty aggressive.
If you're fully committed to that 3:10 and willing to accept the consequences, I'd say start out not a second faster than 3:10 pace. You're very close to being in a position where I would say it's likely you could hold it all the way. For most people, especially being your first marathon, I'd prefer starting at 3:15-3:20 pace and building from there if you felt up to it.