Welcome! › Forums › Running Forum › Joe Henderson’s column from the May/June issue of Marathon and Beyond › Re: Re: Joe Henderson’s column from the May/June issue of Marathon and Beyond
I haven't seen the article but, without some clarifications, this does seem quite disappointing.
- What distance to him qualifies as a long run? The fastest 18 miler would likely be significantly faster than the fastest 25 miler. Some people even consider 15 miles a long run. Is it my fastest 15 miler?
- Is one to purposely go out and blast a long run to see what they are capable of or just do normal training and use the fastest of these normal long runs as your baseline? If I blasted a 20 miler on a course similar to the marathon in middle of training, it would probably be close to marathon pace but I'm not sure how productive it would be as a training run.
- What kind of training heading into that? If I take a cutback week then pop off a 20 miler, it would be much faster than if I kill myself through the week then try to hammer.
Even with the clarifications, I've always found that I've been in shape to run faster than my fastest long run of 20 or more miles. To me, this seems like quite a conservative approach. Of course, maybe that's part of the idea.
In the end, I still say the best predictor is to know thyself. Yasso 800s work for Yasso because he knew himself and created a workout to work for himself. They don't work for most others because these people don't know themselves and don't modify it to work for themselves. It won't work out of the box for most people. Likewise with any other predictor. A predictor based on another race performance is probably the most reliable but even that has to take into account personal strengths and weaknesses. Experienced runners know how to judge their fitness and predict their potential quite accurately because they know themselves. Inexperienced runners need to learn this but contrived tests will not help them in the short term and may get in the way of learning the skills that will benefit them in the long term.