Welcome! › Forums › Running Forum › Joe Henderson’s column from the May/June issue of Marathon and Beyond › Re: Re: Joe Henderson’s column from the May/June issue of Marathon and Beyond
He mentions the Yasso 800m, Galloway's “Magic Mile”, the 10k test, and the 1/2 marathon +5%. But, the predictor he uses today and offers as a standard for the runners he coaches is to simply take the pace of your longest training run and extend that to 26.2 miles. I have no idea if this is true or not, but if it is, I think it's discouraging. He is delivering this speech at a camp that people have paid for to make themselves better marathoners.
It's mostly a bunch of snake oil to pad their pockets. 50 staters and Marathon Maniacs (I think their goal is a marathon a week) aside, I think you're all getting it right.
Not just one workout or race should be used as a predictor, but a combination of performances and workouts assessed over a month/six weeks or so leading up to the marathon. I have always felt Yassos are a bunch of bunk, because it can be easy to run anaerobically and have higher than expected prediction. Just like Ryan says.
And a half marathon often doesn't cut it either, but better than a series of shorter repetitions. I have never attempted more than 14 or 15 miles at MP in a single workout. One that I have liked as a confidence booster is 20 or 21 miles with the second half at MP. It's a stellar workout, good confidence booster, but not so much that you end up leaving your best running on the training runs.