I think Jerry could “survive” Ice Age on that program fairly reasonable. I don’t think his intention is to race, so if he sticks to a run/walk strategy he could finish in the 9 – 10 hour range.
I ran a fairly smart first effort, but I layed it out the last 17 miles. It put the hurt on me. Getting out on the actual trail and practicing your pace and effort is a big plus for the locals.
Actually, one of the big factors in the success bag is the weekly miles. People like to “think” the long run is the biggest part of the pie, but it isn’t. When your run 40-50 miles a week, the long run is hugely important. I could thrive on the weekly long runs Jerry has ran and what I recommended, but my weekly mileage is double that.
Hundreds of people finish Ice Age every year and many on painfully small amounts of training. Jerry’s level of comfort/success will depend on what he is able to get in. Sometimes I think I’m a bad guy to ask. I try an offer minimums, or best case scenarios, but many people believe even my minimums are too much.
Jerry has time to make this work. Keep the weekly miles up and don’t skimp on the few long runs needed out on the trails.