Honestly, first, history isn’t in her favor. The favorite usually doesn’t pull it off in the Olympics. Second, she is a master of running marathons on fast courses in ideal conditions. She has been training in the heat but she hasn’t yet proven how well she can do in a hot marathon on a difficult course. Third, the Kenyans and Japanese are in a great position to play team tactics. I actually think Radcliffe’s best shot of winning is to run away from the competition and I don’t think this Olympic course or the conditions they will be running in favor that tactic. If it is close late in the race, between the conditions and the potential of team tactics working against her, I think she could find herself in trouble.