OK you prognosticators – here we go

Welcome! Forums Running Forum OK you prognosticators – here we go

This topic contains 18 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by  Ryan 14 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #1352

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    I don’t remember how the scoring went for the men’s Trials, so here’s what I propose for this time around.

    Steps:

    1. Pick the top 3 finishers in the order you expect them to finish.

    2. As a tiebreaker, pick the winning time. Closest time gets the tiebreaker. If you don’t pick a winning time, you will by default lose the tiebreaker.

    Scoring:

    For every correct placing you get, you will get:

    1st: 7 points

    2nd: 5 points

    3rd: 3 points

    In addition, for every runner you pick to finish in the top 3 who does but finishes in a different place than you had, you will get 2 points. This means if you pick Deena Kastor to win the Trials and she does, you will get 7 points. If you pick her to win and she finishes second or third, you will get 2 points. If this doesn’t make sense, ask and I can give some scenarios based on my picks.

    Highest possible score: 15.

    Of course, this is all for fun. All you win is bragging rights. As a reminder, Miles & Miles won the prognostication contest for the men’s Trials with the possible assistance of inside information. Can he do it without that inside information?

    My picks:

    1. Deena Kastor (2:29:27)

    2. Colleen De Reuck

    3. Milena Glusac

  • #13978

    Jason
    Member

    My Picks

    1. Deena Kastor 2:27:38

    2. Colleen De Reuck

    3. Sara Wells

  • #13979

    Anonymous

    Ryan,

    I like your picks. I didn’t realize Glusac was in it. Last I heard she was battling a bad hip flexor injury.

  • #13980

    danm
    Member

    Here are mine

    1. Deena Kastor

    2. Colleen De Reuck

    3. Jenny Spangler

    Start counting out my money now…

    Dan

  • #13981

    Zeke
    Member

    1. Deena Kastor (2:28:01)

    2. Blake Russell

    3. Sara Wells

  • #13982

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    Jason, it was very difficult for me to pass up on Wells as my darkhorse pick and sentimental favorite. However, I just have a gut feeling about Glusac.

    Runnerdude, I hope Glusac is still in. If not, it’s going to start to look like my picking someone as a darkhorse is a kiss of death, ranking right up there with the SI cover jinx. I also think she has some good potential, would be a shame to see that potential taken away by an injury in an Olympic year.

  • #13983

    danm
    Member

    Oops. Forgot to include the winning time

    1. Deena Kastor (2:29:36)

    2. Colleen De Reuck

    3. Jenny Spangler

  • #13984

    Anonymous
    Ryan wrote:
    Runnerdude, I hope Glusac is still in.

    So do I. Just to clarify, she stayed out of a lot of races last year b/c of the hip flexor, so she might be ok now. And, yes, she does have tremendous potential – 2 years ago she beat Deena at the Kent River run en route to the 2nd fastest time by an American female runner at that race. At NYC in 2002 where she ran the 2:31, she courageously took the lead at the 16-mile mark. had she waited a couple more miles she might have been able to maintain her speed closer to the end.

  • #13985

    Evets Sberk
    Member

    1. Deena Drossin

    2. Sara Wells

    3. Katie Blackett

  • #13986

    Jeff
    Member

    De Reuck 2:31:45

    Kastor

    Wells

  • #13987

    Woody
    Member

    1. Kastor – 2:28:30

    2. Spangler- Yo ‘ Masters

    3. Wells

    Take the money from Dan and give it to The Ice Cream Man 😆

  • #13988

    runnerdude
    Member
    Ryan wrote:
    Runnerdude, I hope Glusac is still in. If not, it’s going to start to look like my picking someone as a darkhorse is a kiss of death, ranking right up there with the SI cover jinx. I also think she has some good potential, would be a shame to see that potential taken away by an injury in an Olympic year.

    sorry to disappoint you.

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/20040330-9999-news_1s30runnote.html

    Glusac, Lave sidelined

    Fallbrook’s Milena Glusac and San Diego’s Tamara Lave will not compete in Saturday’s U.S. Olympic Women’s Marathon Trials in St. Louis because of injuries. Glusac, 28, has not raced for nearly a year because of a lower back and hip injury. Lave, 35, is out with an Achilles’ injury.

  • #13989

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    I guess I just spotted everyone 3 points. Not looking too promising for me with Jason and Dan picking the same first two as me (and Dan piggybacking on my time prediction also ;-)).

  • #13990

    magpie
    Member

    I cannot believe what I am seeing here . . . Spangler has as much of a shot at a top 3 finish as Hellebuyck did, which is to say slim-to-none. Wells has been down with injury for much of the winter, her form is shot. And Blackett? Nothing against her at all, but Patty Murray has a much better shot at being the top BoCo local yokel in St. Louie. It is not hard at all to tell that it will be:

    1) Kastor

    2) De Reuck

    3) Rhines

    Would not be at all surprised to see a flip-flop of that top two. Mosqueda should be considered a dark horse, if she does not pull a Mitchell (‘pulling a Lawson’ would not apply here.) Boaz (nee Gaitenby) and Youngquist, too.

    Winning time, I would guess something around 2:26 — I do not expect a close race, at least past the top two.

    :mrgreen:

  • #13991

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    She has been running well lately and her move to Oregon has seemed to pay off very well. I think I like that pick.

  • #13992

    cameron
    Member

    Deena Kastor 2:30:37

    Colleen De Reuck

    Jenny Spangler

  • #13993

    danm
    Member

    See folks. Another Jenny Spangler vote. Never discount someone who has done it before. She ran a decent Chicago last year in 2:32 off of way less miles than when she ran last Oly trials.

    She has been training hard and I think a veteran has a better chance than a newbie. Experience counts.

    1 and 2 should be locked up and then everyone else in the field is around 2:3x

  • #13994

    Run
    Member

    Deena Kastor 2:29:00

    Colleen De Reuck

    Jenny Spangler

  • #13995

    magpie
    Member

    Right, and that same “experience” worked like a charm for Hellebuyck, eh? By that same ‘logic’ DeHaven should have been able to make the Oly team again, and that clearly was not the case. Be careful to not be fooled into mistaking the popularity of a concept with its soundness — sometimes a majority opinion simply means that all the fools are in agreement. 😉

    It is really quite simple, if you bother to look past the headlines: Spangler’s seed time is barely faster than her AJR and she has nowhere near the racing cred that many others in the field do, especially in the past year or two and especially in championship races. It helped her “experience” that women’s marathoning in the U.S. was at or near an all-time low (it could be argued that the nadir of this low coincided more closely with Clark’s OT victory) in the modern era – however, since then there has been a significant upswing in performance. It would be nearly as sad of a statement on U.S. marathoning if she were able to make the Oly team tomorrow as if Hellebuyck had made the team back in February, nothing at all against either of them. Spangler’s current support for making the Oly team seems to be a result of mere sentimentality and/or blatant homerism. Realistically speaking, if Spangler has a great day (and enough of her competitors have an off day) women’s marathoning in the U.S. is still soft enough that she very well could be fortunate enough to finish in the top 10. 🙂

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