Predict my first race of the season!

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This topic contains 21 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by  JCWrs 13 years ago.

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  • #2261

    JCWrs
    Member

    Yes, sports fans…I am making my 2005 debut on Saturday at the Sweetheart Run 10K here in Tulsa, OK. Weather looks good the course is a pancake (except pancake’s may have more bumps) and I am certainly ready to go! So here’s the run-down…last race was 10/30 of last year, it was a 15K and I ran 1:04:53 chip time. In the 10 weeks leading up to that race I averaged 31 miles per week (and before that 10 weeks I had been very inconsistent with my training for quite some time). After the race I built on what I took as a moderate success and trained well through the end of the year averaging 36 miles per week over that 10 week period (most of this is just go out and run so some was kinda fast and some was pretty slow…no real workouts for me to this point).

    Then I had a minor foot issue that took me out for about 10 days, but is completely gone now. From that point, I ran weeks of 25, 45, 51, 52, 53, and 42 (the 42 featured a 15 mile run to start the week and I spent the rest of the week making sure my legs would be recovered by race day). This week I’m taking it pretty easy with 6 miles yesterday and today and likely again tomorrow, then Thursday off, a 2 mile shake-out friday after work and then go time at 9:00 AM Saturday. My 10K PR is 41:20 and I hope to crack that. So, all you arm-chair racers and coach’s out there, let’s hear your guesses (this is more for fun then me wanting to know what I can run…I’m just going to go out and go hard) and we’ll see if, like my last 10K PR, someone can virtually nail it. Good luck!

  • #17781

    steeplegal
    Member

    using a very scientific method….

    i’m going to go with 41:07.25..

    Good Luck! 🙂

  • #17782

    r-at-work
    Member

    I’ll say a tail wind pushes you to a great finish of 40:18

    have fun…

    -Rita

  • #17783

    Ed 1
    Member

    Terrible, harsh conditions making even the most seasoned runners cry will motivate you to a 10 second new PR.

  • #17784

    Zeke
    Member

    I don’t think Steeplegal or Ed have confidence in what increasing mileage will do for you. While I’d like to see more than 5 weeks in the 42-53 range, I think you’re on the right track. Therefore, I’m going to say 39:55.

  • #17785

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    While I agree with Zeke that there have been some underestimations on the value of volume, the time when the volume really pays off big dividends is once you progress beyond the base training phase and add speedwork to your newly found base.

    My prognostication will be 40:27 with much greater improvements coming later this year once your base is more well established and you build upon it with some good quality work.

  • #17786

    Bart
    Member

    I will guess 40:22, which will equal my PR. Our mileage is similar, so it’s a possibility.

    Bart

  • #17787

    r-at-work
    Member

    is this race chip times or will it be “gun time” only… as close as these guesses are it might make a difference… you had better line up right at the front (well maybe off to the side a bit)… save those seconds…

    -Rita

  • #17788

    Ryan
    Keymaster
    r-at-work wrote:
    you had better line up right at the front (well maybe off to the side a bit)… save those seconds…

    To be completely honest, I shudder when I see comments like this. Line up behind those who are faster than you. You won’t lose much time and you will avoid creating a serious and potentially injury causing mess.

  • #17789

    Zeke
    Member
    Ryan wrote:
    r-at-work wrote:
    you had better line up right at the front (well maybe off to the side a bit)… save those seconds…

    To be completely honest, I shudder when I see comments like this. Line up behind those who are faster than you. You won’t lose much time and you will avoid creating a serious and potentially injury causing mess.

    I totally agree. Line up where you’re “supposed to.” Then just start your watch when you cross the line and count it as your “chip” time, even if the race doesn’t have chips.

    At the start of the half marathon I ran a couple of weeks ago there was a gal line up next to me (about 3 rows deep). The race had 1,100 runners. I didn’t think she’d finish in the top-50, but what do I know. For some reason I happened to spot her on my way back. She was probably in about 700th place. I doubt it was fun being passed by 650 people.

  • #17790

    Run
    Member

    I am supposed to try to do a tune up race in a week or two and there are no races going on in the area. What should I do instead? Solo time trial? Tempo workout? The race is supposed to be 8 – 10 k?

    thanks

    tim

    Sorry I meant to start a new thread 😆

  • #17791

    JCWrs
    Member

    I’m sure r-at-work was just having some fun…I know where I need to be (usually about the 3rd row at this type of race in Tulsa) and it matters not for this race is to be chip timed. I just hope I can live up to the hype! I agree with Ryan that my biggest gains should be at least a couple months off (my goal is race is still 8 months away) and, while I am excited to see where I am, I will be happy with a new PR of any magnitude (though it won’t stop me from trying to meet the loftiest of predictions). Thanks for playing along…I’ll be sure to post on Saturday afternoon to let you know how things turn out!

  • #17792

    Ryan
    Keymaster
    JCWrs wrote:
    I’m sure r-at-work was just having some fun…

    Very possible but tongue-in-cheek does not come across very well online. Consider the fact that a few hundred people visit this site every day and many of those hit the forums. We have no idea who is reading what we post on these forums but the one thing I can assure you is that you should expect that at least a few dozen and potentially more will read anything you do post. Whether she was serious or not, it’s very possible that someone would think she was and would make the potentially dangerous decision to not line up properly next time they line up for a race. That’s why the wink emoticon is very important when making tongue-in-cheek comments.

  • #17793

    SwampTiger
    Member
    Ryan wrote:
    Consider the fact that a few hundred people visit this site every day and many of those hit the forums. ………….That’s why the wink emoticon is very important when making tongue-in-cheek comments.

    Good point Ryan. I knew what Rita meant and kind of wondered why you made a big deal out of it. But I guess I forget that those who post here aren’t the only ones reading. I learned the importance of emoticons a couple of weeks ago with my “find a race with no fast people” comment.

  • #17794

    r-at-work
    Member

    sorry guys… I WAS kidding around, should have added the emoticon 😉 … thought at by asking about chip timing vs. gun time it would be clear that I was hinting at the size of the race… I’ll try to do better guys… that is to say, if you are running with 5,000 of your closest friends and the start is narrow it will be difficult to start out and therefore ‘seconds’ will be lost…

    and as others I have also been at plenty of races where people who had no intentions of even RUNNING placed themselves at the very front to the starting line and then walked the whole 5K… it was to “get a better view” as I was told. because I just had to ask them as I passed them…

    so maybe I should also add “don’t stop and chat if you see any of your friends” 😉 because I’ve smacked into people who did just that 😯 at mile 1 of a marathon… people do weird things in races..

    -Rita

  • #17795

    Ryan
    Keymaster
    r-at-work wrote:
    people do weird things in races..

    Problem is some people don’t seem to understand either that they are races or the concept of racing.

  • #17796
    SwampTiger wrote:
    I learned the importance of emoticons a couple of weeks ago with my “find a race with no fast people” comment.

    True, but I thought we had a very good discussion on racing goals. 🙂

    I will predict 40:00, for no scientific reason, or any other reason, I just like even times. 😉

  • #17797

    TimRuns
    Member

    I predict somewhere in the 40 min range or sub 40…like what others have said, the true benefits occur once you add in the intensity after a phase of base training

  • #17798

    JCWrs
    Member

    Yes, Ryan (the man who runs the site, dispenses advice, and seems to be an all-around great guy though I’ve never met him in person) wins the prediction contest with his guess of 40:27. Alas, I didn’t quite measure up to that coming in at 40:41, but that was the closest guess so well done Ryan!

    As for the race, it was the Sweetheart Run 10K in Tulsa, OK. The course was, as advertised, flat and flat. The weather was pretty good though it got pretty cold when we turned into the wind (and who ordered the wind? not me thats for darn sure). There was a decent trun-out, but nothing spectacular, the winner ran 33:10, but I believe I was in the top 25 so it was pretty spread out. It was basicly a 2 loop course and was a true loop in that we really just ran a big circle twice. I started out and was freezing so I let that and the excitement drag me out a little too quickly, but I got it under control before I really lost it. I went through 1K in 3:53, then settled in to a much more reasonable pace. After the field sorted out over the first 2K, I notice that, despite a pretty even pace, I was reeling people in…not fast, but consistently. The next split I remember was 5K and I went through at 20:19. At this point I was predicting a war of attrition and was just hoping to hold on and go under my PR of 41:20. Needless to say, I was feeling the effort, but maybe it was all those miles I have been running…each split I was hanging in! At 8K, I got an added bonus of hitting 32:36 which demolished my 8K PR of 33:55 (yeah, I know….I only have run 1 8K and I blew up). I had just enough left to pick it up a little and get to the line in 40:41. I was first in my age group (20-24) which was strange (I won my group by over 5 minutes, but would have gotten crushed in the 15-19 group), but I picked up my award, had a little refreshment and hit the road. I am pleased with my performance, but its just a beginning. Heres to the road ahead!

  • #17799

    Zeke
    Member

    Way to go. Not sub-40 yet, but without a doubt, that will come this summer. If you can PR in February, you’re on the right track. Nice even splits too. Take a little R&R, then add some more base miles.

  • #17800

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    Good job. I was going to predict 40:40-something, like 40:43 or 40:47, but didn’t want to seem too pessimistic. Once you get that base well established and put some speedwork on it, you’ll crash through that 40:00 mark without even looking back. Keep up the good work.

  • #17801

    Run
    Member

    Nice race! Its funny how that age group stuff works out some time. Last year I came 5th in my age group in a ten miler but was crushed by a 13 year old girl by about 5min! Congrats on your race, I think Zeke is right, when the warm weather comes, your sub 40 will come with it.

    Tim

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