Predict my next marathon

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    I’m scheduled to do my “rehearsal marathon” at the “FlyingPig” on May 1st. The sole reason for doing this race is to prepare myself for my BQ this Fall. I haven’t run a marathon since 2000, and that was when I was another person/runner. I finished in 5:00+, whereas I need a 3:35 to BQ. I’ve completed 13 marathons, 3:05:01 P.R. [1983]. Last strong race was 3:12:23 [1995]. But that won’t help me much for my next effort.

    I set this goal for myself about 4 years ago to re-qualify in 2007, for my 50th. Obviously, I had a lot of work to do but I’ve made steady progress in the last two years and got my half time down to 1:39 last Fall. Being one year ahead of schedule I decided to go for my BQ this Fall, instead of 2006. After taking about 5 weeks off I resumed training on December 31st. This is the 1st time I’ve run during the Winter in about 9 years. So far, I’ve run three races; a 15 miler, which was more of a training run in 2:06 [Feb 6th]. A 5k March 17th in 22:41, and a half April 2nd in 1:44:50. I ran this race in 2:06 last year.

    I’ve run 426 miles for the year. My two highest weeks were 40 and 41 miles. I’m running 5x a week and feel very comfortable with the increase over this time last year. Other than my 15 mile race I’ve done two 18 mile runs on a hilly trail, a 20 miler combined with my half marathon and a combined 22 yesterday [18 am / 4 pm]. Felt just fine during the half but the 18 on the asphalt beat me up pretty good for the last 3 miles. Begin taper today.

    My goals for Cinny are just to revisit what 26 miles feels like and work out some logistics for my BQ; shoes, drink, gels and some lingering hamstring cramping issues. Timewise, I wasn’t too concerned and since I hadn’t done much in the way of specific marathon training I wasn’t expecting a great result. If I’d come home in “around 3:45” I’d be happy. But as the date draws near the reality of running a marathon is setting in.

    Kind of an odd question but I’m just curious what anyone else thinks. I’m definately NOT looking for the usual, “oh, you’ll do fine”, replies. Be honest, given the data provided. So, how do you think I’ll do? Thanks!

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