Predict my next marathon

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This topic contains 3 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  MothAudio 13 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #2399

    MothAudio
    Member

    I’m scheduled to do my “rehearsal marathon” at the “FlyingPig” on May 1st. The sole reason for doing this race is to prepare myself for my BQ this Fall. I haven’t run a marathon since 2000, and that was when I was another person/runner. I finished in 5:00+, whereas I need a 3:35 to BQ. I’ve completed 13 marathons, 3:05:01 P.R. [1983]. Last strong race was 3:12:23 [1995]. But that won’t help me much for my next effort.

    I set this goal for myself about 4 years ago to re-qualify in 2007, for my 50th. Obviously, I had a lot of work to do but I’ve made steady progress in the last two years and got my half time down to 1:39 last Fall. Being one year ahead of schedule I decided to go for my BQ this Fall, instead of 2006. After taking about 5 weeks off I resumed training on December 31st. This is the 1st time I’ve run during the Winter in about 9 years. So far, I’ve run three races; a 15 miler, which was more of a training run in 2:06 [Feb 6th]. A 5k March 17th in 22:41, and a half April 2nd in 1:44:50. I ran this race in 2:06 last year.

    I’ve run 426 miles for the year. My two highest weeks were 40 and 41 miles. I’m running 5x a week and feel very comfortable with the increase over this time last year. Other than my 15 mile race I’ve done two 18 mile runs on a hilly trail, a 20 miler combined with my half marathon and a combined 22 yesterday [18 am / 4 pm]. Felt just fine during the half but the 18 on the asphalt beat me up pretty good for the last 3 miles. Begin taper today.

    My goals for Cinny are just to revisit what 26 miles feels like and work out some logistics for my BQ; shoes, drink, gels and some lingering hamstring cramping issues. Timewise, I wasn’t too concerned and since I hadn’t done much in the way of specific marathon training I wasn’t expecting a great result. If I’d come home in “around 3:45” I’d be happy. But as the date draws near the reality of running a marathon is setting in.

    Kind of an odd question but I’m just curious what anyone else thinks. I’m definately NOT looking for the usual, “oh, you’ll do fine”, replies. Be honest, given the data provided. So, how do you think I’ll do? Thanks!

  • #18273

    Zeke
    Member

    MikE,

    It looks like you’re going in the right direction. Your 15 miler in Feb predicts a 3:50 and your April half predicts 3:41. More importantly it’s inline with your 5k. Too many times you’ll see a 3:41 based on 5k, but a 3:50 based on a half.

    Like I’ve said here before, you can RUN a marathon on 40 mpw but I don’t think you can RACE a marathon on that mileage. I think you can break 3:50, but sub-3:45 might be tough this time around.

  • #18274

    Ryan
    Keymaster

    I have two major concerns at this point. First, I know I’m always questioned about this but I do think peaking at around 40 mpw is quite low for marathon training. I have a feeling this will hurt you late in the marathon, even if you start out conservatively. Second, I don’t see very many long runs in there. I’m not sure what “a 20 miler combined with my half marathon” means but, in addition to that, we’re talking about 3 18 milers. I’ll give you a bit of a bonus on that 18 miler when you ran again in the PM but that is much different than a straight 20-22 miler. A slight concern is that 18 miles on asphalt beat you up. You don’t mention it but I hope you’ve been getting in at least some miles on paved surfaces so marathon day is not a shock to your body.

    Surprisingly, regardless of the factors I just listed that I’m concerned about, your 5k and your half predict marathon times that are only 59 seconds apart from each other. The 5k predicts a 3:37:35 and the half predicts a 3:38:34. That said, I have a feeling those concerns I listed will come into play in the marathon much more than they will in the half.

    After all of this analysis, I’ll go with a gut instinct. My gut instinct is that 3:45 would not be out of the realm of possibility. However, I think I would consider 3:50-3:55 to be a more likely scenario and, if I were in your position, I would not be starting out any faster than 3:50 pace.

  • #18275

    MothAudio
    Member

    I agree this is far from ideal, but I’m just using this race as a test for my BQ this Fall. It’s been so long since I ran one [2000] and even longer since I really trained hard and ran well I thought it made sense to do a “rehearsal” of sorts. After my 18/70 Pfitz schedule [this Summer] I’ll be in much better shape [in body and mind] when I go for it this Fall.

    The “20 miler combined with my half marathon” was the half I did on April 2nd where combined with my warmup and cool down = 20 miles. I’ve done most of my runs in the 12-18 mile range on a soft, hilly trail. But I’ve done the bulk of my running on hard surfaces. Maybe I wasn’t fully recovered from my half when I did my 18 yesterday. It also was the warmest day of the year and I began at 11am, so most of it was during the hottest portion. I also only drank 20 oz of fluids during. I felt fine during my pm run, but I’m a little sore today.

    I suppose you could question how useful this race will be given my “less than ideal” preparation. And should I “bomb” how much will it affect me. But I know that regardless of how much I’ve improved in one year, that I’ll be that much better this Fall. Once I get into the meat of the marathon schedule I’m sure I’ll feel a lot better about my chances. Or at the very least have a much clearer idea of what I have to look forward to.

    I’m thinking I should be able to get my half down to 1:35 by this Summer and considering that endurance is my strenght I shouldn’t have much trouble carrying that speed. Honestly I think I can go well under my BQ but that’s getting ahead of myself.

    FWIW, I pretty much was thinking about the same finish time. My race day strategy is to run 9:00 pace through the early hills [9 miles] then “race [3:45] pace” till 20, and then depending on my fate either hang on for dear life or give it hell. Thanks guys for your input.

    MikE

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