As my race nears (May 1st) I am debating race strategy. Do I run a ‘sure-thing-pb’ or race ‘close-to-the-edge’.
I’ve been running faster than my current PB in comfort on long runs. Over the past few weeks I did 24 in 3:11 and 24 in 3:10; both felt easy.
I finished both at close to tempo pace and could easily have run another 2.2 (and new PB’s). This was in training with little to no water and no taper. In a race I am certain I could go under 3:25 with ease (current PB is 3:29 last year at this race).
Or I could push for a ‘breakthrough’ with a sub 3:15. But if I run close to the edge I could crash; missing the sure-thing in the process.
Its like investing in stocks or bonds (but instead of money my investment is time spent training).
If I buy Bonds (race a sure thing) I am certain of my return (5 min pb) and my investment is safe. If I buy stocks (race all out) I may get a larger return (15 min pb) but I could loose it all (a dnf).
How many race all out versus staying inside their comfort zone? This question only applies to the marathon. I think we all race ‘all-out’ in shorter races but the marathon is unique because you can’t bounce back and run another two or three weeks later.